Al ritmo actual, Argentina tardaría 18 años en vacunar a su población

Según un estudio de Timetoherd.com, solo tres países alcanzarán la “normalidad” hacia fin de año. Pese a que el plan de Ginés González consiste en llegar al 15 de julio con el 25% de la población vacunada, las demoras en la llegada de partidas ponen en duda que pueda cumplirse la meta.

El proyecto Timetoherd se propuso comparar en cuanto tiempo tardaría cada país en llegar al objetivo de la inmunidad colectiva con el 70% de la población vacunada con dos dosis. Y el mapa mundial muestra que en esta carrera por recuperar la movilidad y la producción, sólo un pequeño puñado de países podrán recuperar la “normalidad” hacia fin de año. Y algunos ni siquiera llegaron a la línea de partida en esta carrera contra los estragos del coronavirus, porque está lejos de empezar a vacunar o lo hacen a un ritmo ínfimo.

La estrella global en vacunación es Israel que apenas en 44 días alcanzaría la inmunidad de rebaño. Ese país el jueves pasado ya había vacunado a la mitad de la población. Con una disciplina militar muy afianzada en la población y un sistema de salud super eficiente dividido en sólo cuatro grandes prestadores, la nación que gobierna Benjamin Netanyahu, ya vacuno a todos los grupos de riesgo de su población de nueve millones de habitantes y ahora avanza sobre el resto a velocidad supersónica. Incluso se anticipó a la guerra de vacunas y acordó con Pfizer pagarle el triple del valor comercial por dosis, para asegurarse el stock necesario.

En el tramo más avanzado le siguen Emiratos Arabes Unidos con apenas 106 días por delante para alcanzar la inmunidad y el Reino Unido con 233 días. En el caso del país araba tienen una población similar a la de Israel, mientras que en país que gobierna Boris Johnson el desafío es mayúsculo, son casi 70 millones de británicos.

En la cima de la tabla también aparece Estados Unidos que tardaría -siempre al actual ritmo de vacunación- 350 días en alcanzar la inmunidad de rebaño, es decir que para mediados de enero del año próximo lograrían haber vacunado al 70% de su población. Mientras que en Canadá se necesitarían 1973 días, o sea casi 4 años y medio y en México 11.678 días, es decir 32 años.

Al poner la lupa en el resto de América, las cosas se ponen más difíciles. En primer lugar por la falta de información: Brasil no informa sobre las dosis inoculadas, Ecuador comenzó con 8 mil dosis la semana pasada; y Colombia, Paraguay, Perú y Uruguay aún no han comenzando la vacunación .

Así de todo el Cono Sur solo hay datos de Argentina y Chile. Acá se necesitarían 6730 días (prácticamente 18 años y medio) y en el país trasandino, 42.665 días (más de 116 años), aunque cabe aclarar que el estudio todavía no incorporó el impacto en aplicación que se supone producirá en el país trasandino las dos millones de dosis de China que acaban de recibir a las que se sumará en los próximos días un envío similar.

Cabe recordar que el plan de Ginés González García consiste en llegar al 15 de julio con el 25% de la población vacunada, y el ritmo de vacunación en algunas provincias en la primera semana de enero mostraba que no era imposible acercarse a esa cifra. Sin embargo, las demoras entre la llegada de partidas que ya se vieron en esta primera etapa sí ponen en duda que pueda cumplirse la meta.

Otro tanto sucede en Centroamérica. Solo hay datos para Costa Rica, que tardaría 2597 días, es decir algo más de 7 años.

Oceanía y África no tienen cálculos, mientras que Israel está solo a 45 días de alcanzar la vacunación del 70% de su población y por ende la cuestionada inmunidad de rebaño.

En Europa los números actuales sugieren que se podría tardar de 3 años a 4 años en el grueso de los países con algunas excepciones: Reino Unido (235), Portugal (950 días), Rumania (714), Polonia (806), Finlandia (876). Mientras que Francia (1199), España (1451), Italia (1293) y Alemania (1219) se ubican en torno al promedio continental.

La sorpresa tal vez viene por el lado de Rusia (11.070) días y China (1.713 días), dos grandes proveedores de vacunas para todo el mundo y que sin embargo quedaron lejos de los punteros en esta carrera y más como el promedio del pelotón. Con los datos disponibles, China tardaría unos 1.713 días en llegar a la inmunidad de rebaño, prácticamente cinco años. Y Rusia demoraría 11.070 días, es decir más de 30 años siempre y cuando no acelere el tiempo de vacunación.

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